International Telecommunications Union Secretary-General Hamadoun
Touré said that worldwide mobile cellular subscribers
are likely to reach the 4 billion mark before the end of this year.
Dr Touré was speaking at the high-level events on the
Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) in New York.
Since the turn of the century, the growth of mobile cellular
subscribers has been impressive, with year-on-year growth averaging 24
per cent between 2000 and 2008. While in 2000, mobile penetration stood
at only 12 per cent, it surpassed the 50 per cent mark by early 2008.
It is estimated to reach about 61 per cent by the end of 2008.
While the data shows impressive growth, ITU stresses that the
figures need to be carefully interpreted. Although in theory a 61 per
cent penetration rate suggests that at least every second person could
be using a mobile phone, this is not necessarily the case. In fact, the
statistics reflect the number of subscriptions, not persons.
Double counting takes place when people have multiple subscriptions.
Also, operators' methods for counting active prepaid subscribers vary
and often inflate the actual number of people that use a mobile phone.
On the other hand, some subscribers, particularly in developing
countries, share their mobile phone with others. This has often been
cited as the success story of Grameen Phone in rural Bangladesh, for
instance, ITU further highlights that despite high growth rates
in the mobile sector, major differences in mobile penetration rates
remain between regions and within countries.The impressive growth in the number of mobile cellular subscribers
is mainly due to developments in some of the world's largest markets.
The BRIC economies of Brazil, Russia, India and China are expected to
have an increasingly important impact in terms of population, resources
and global GDP share. These economies alone are expected to account for
over 1.3 billion mobile subscribers by the end of 2008.
China surpassed the 600 million mark by mid-2008, representing by far
the world's largest mobile market. India had some 296 million mobile
subscribers by end July 2008 but with a relatively low penetration rate
of about 20 per cent, India offers great potential for growth. Market
liberalization has played a key role in spreading mobile telephony by
driving competition and bringing down prices. India's mobile operators
increasingly compete for low-income customers and
Average-Revenue-Per-User in India has reached around USD 7, one of the
lowest in the world.
ITU recently published two regional reports for Africa and Asia,
which indicate how mobile telephony is changing peoples' lives. Apart
from providing communication services to previously unconnected areas,
mobile applications have opened the doors to innovations such as
m-commerce to access pricing information for rural farmers and the use
of mobile phones to pay for goods and services. While mobile broadband
subscribers remain concentrated in the developed world, a number of
developing countries, including Indonesia, the Maldives, the
Philippines and Sri Lanka in Asia-Pacific have launched 3G networks.
Broadband uptake enables a range of socially desirable and valuable
online services, specifically targeting the MDGs in areas such as
e-government, e-education and e-health. The use of broadband
technologies can help overcome many of the basic development challenge