Mobile penetration rates are forecast to rise from 46% in 2008 to 95%
by 2013 according to a new survey of 34 emerging market countries
published by Tariff Consultancy Ltd.
Emerging Mobile Markets identifies the following key trends that will
impact subscribers, investors and operators over the years ahead:
- Emerging Markets will continue to increase in their importance.
Already subscribers in the 34 countries total over 2.1 billion users
(based on operator statistics as of mid-2008) which accounts for half
of the world's mobile users (based on ITU estimates). By 2013 the 34
countries will have grown to 4.3 billion mobile users and will account
for around two thirds of global mobile users
- Although China and India will remain the two single largest markets
throughout the period due to their large populations, the fastest
growth in new mobile subscribers over the next 5 years is set to come
from Afghanistan, Iraq, Cambodia and Indonesia. By 2013 Iraq is
forecast to have the highest mobile penetration rate of all of the 34
countries.
- Another striking feature is the deployment of 3G and HSDPA mobile
networks across all regions which is likely to continue. Although 3G
handset costs are currently prohibitively expensive for the mass market
there is evidence of adoption by high spending user groups who are
using 3G for VoIP and peer-to-peer applications as an alternative to
fixed line broadband.
- The adoption of mobile broadband is likely to continue and will
become a key factor in driving up subscriber levels. Mobile operators
with experience of developing markets are introducing their bundled
data services into their emerging markets, for example Orange with its
Business Everywhere package. The introduction of new USB dongles with
flat rate tariffs - and larger data allowances - will spur adoption
- The use of inclusive call minutes is also increasing. Inclusive call
minutes are being used as a short term customer acquisition tool, with
unlimited on-net SMS or calls offered for a 24 or 48 hour period. They
are being used as a retention tool with low on-net calls to particular
user communities, and finally as a flat rate price differentiator
across all networks where competition is severe.
- The availability of new mobile licences and spectrum is continuing to
attract investors as Governments seek to raise new revenue with licence
auctions and existing providers look for foreign investors. New mobile
operator investment is taking place in India, Cambodia, Iraq, Iran,
Nigeria and Vietnam among others.
- Mobile operators are starting to segment their product offer for
particular user groups. Mobile packages are now being developed for the
youth segment, a trend that we expect to increase given the relatively
low age of most emerging market populations.
- As markets approach maturity, mobile operators are attempting to
develop new forms of distribution channel to attract the low income
subscriber with lower dnomination top-up cards and door to door sales
and sub-agents.
"The rapid growth of mobile penetration across the world indicates that
these markets will approach maturity more quickly than previously
thought," commented Margrit Sessions, Managing Director of Tariff
Consultancy Ltd. "By the end of 2013 we are likely to see one SIM card
for every person as the norm in most countries," she added. "However we
should be careful to over-emphasise the significance of this trend, as
the incidence of multiple SIM ownership - particularly in the cites -
has long been common in emerging markets as there is such a large
difference between on net and off net tariffs."
Over time pricing policies pursued by the mobile operator will need to
change in order to promote greater mobile operators. Operators who
continue to promote multiple SIM ownership with large differences
between on-net and off-net tariffs will ironically contribute to
relatively low levels of operator loyalty.
Emerging market mobile operators are likely to find that growth will
come from inclusive flat rate deals for both voice and data which will
drive usage as has been the case in developed markets.
"The imminent launch of mobile broadband data services provides an
exciting new revenue stream as users are able to break free of low
speed fixed or dial up access which will continue to have relatively
poor levels of penetration. Mobile is going to become the standard for
accessing the internet in many of these countries from now on," adds
Margrit Sessions.
Emerging Mobile Markets 2008 Report,
analyses 34 countries around the world - from Afghanistan to Vietnam -
and includes the key countries from the regions of Eastern Europe,
Asia, Africa and Latin America. There are also separate sections on the
largest countries of China, India and Brazil. For each country there is
an overview of the main trends, operators and new services being
launched in each country. The report also includes a subscriber
forecast for the next 5 years (to the end of 2013) for each of the 34
countries surveyed.
Further information on the report can be found at:
www.telecomspricing.com