Increasing adoption of messaging and content services, aided by increased
availability of 2G and 3G-based mobile networks, is expected to push
operator-billed data revenues in the mobile markets of Brazil, Russia, India and
China (collectively referred to as the BRIC economies) from $26.2 billion in
2008 to more than $48.3 billion by 2013, according to a new report from Juniper
Research.
The research highlights broader expectations that these four
markets will be among the six largest economies in the world by 2050, by which
time their mutual interdependence and trading abilities will have significantly
shielded them from weakening economic conditions elsewhere in the world. They
will be matched in size only by the United States and by
Mexico.
According to report author Andrew Kitson, "As fixed-line
telephony and broadband availability via traditional forms of access remains low
in comparison with other important economies, these countries are expected to
turn to the mobile phone for much of their future communications, banking,
entertainment, commerce and lifestyle needs. Indeed, in countries such as India,
low-cost multi-functional mobile handsets will become an essential part of
everyday life for millions of people otherwise beyond the geographic and
economic reach of basic fixed-line infrastructure. This, in turn, will help
continue to drive economic growth. Mobile data will therefore be central to this
unfolding story."
For operators, the key change in the next five years
will be the launch of commercial 3G services (currently available only on a
regional basis in Russia and Brazil) as well as migrating low-cost prepaid users
to higher-value postpaid offerings wherever they can. However, with billions of
dollars set to be spent on establishing these next-generation networks, the
fundamental question facing players will be whether they can turn a profit from
markets that will still have very low GDP per capita levels by
2050.
Other findings include
• The BRIC mobile user base is
expected to rise from 1.209 billion in 2008 to 1.644 billion in 2013
•
Total operator-billed voice revenues for the region are expected to peak in
2010 at $117.1 billion and will decline thereafter
• China will record the
highest operator billed data revenues of all four markets throughout the
forecast period, well ahead of its closest rivals, Brazil and India
The
report provides coverage and forecasts for the four individual BRIC markets
(Brazil, Russia, India and China) as well as for the grouping as a whole. It
also includes overviews for more than 25 key market players, including Brasil
Telecom, VIVO, Claro, TIM Brasil, Svyazinvest, Mobile TeleSystems (MTS),
VimpelCom, MegaFon, Tele2 Russia, SMARTS, Bharat Sanchar Nigam Ltd (BSNL),
Mahanagar Telephone Nigam Ltd (MTNL), Bharti Airtel, Vodafone Essar, Reliance
Communications, Tata Telecom, China Mobile, China Unicom, and China Telecom.