Mobile network operators in developed regions should prepare for a
tenfold increase in wireless network traffic by 2015, as data traffic
rapidly overtakes voice, according to the latest report entitled Wireless
network traffic 2008-2015: forecasts and analysis from Analysys
Mason.
Total wireless network traffic from cellular users in developed regions
is set to increase substantially, driven by: improved cellular devices
(such as USB modems and smartphones); widespread deployment of advanced
3G technologies and femtocells; affordable pricing (particularly for
traffic-intensive services); more indoor usage of cellular devices; and
increasing size of items of Web content.
is set to increase substantially, driven by: improved cellular devices
(such as USB modems and smartphones); widespread deployment of advanced
3G technologies and femtocells; affordable pricing (particularly for
traffic-intensive services); more indoor usage of cellular devices; and
increasing size of items of Web content.
"While developed regions will account for just 25% of the cellular user
population by 2015, they will generate 65% of total global wireless
network traffic", according to Dr Mark Heath, the report's co-author.
"This is due to a higher proportion of advanced handsets and the earlier
deployment of more advanced cellular technologies, such as LTE, which
have higher throughput."
population by 2015, they will generate 65% of total global wireless
network traffic", according to Dr Mark Heath, the report's co-author.
"This is due to a higher proportion of advanced handsets and the earlier
deployment of more advanced cellular technologies, such as LTE, which
have higher throughput."
Key findings of the new report include:
--
Historically, voice telephony has dominated wireless network traffic,
and popular data services, such as SMS, consume a tiny amount of
network resource. However, the take-up of USB modems and a broad range
of data services on smartphones will increase wireless network
traffic. Average wireless network traffic per cellular user (for all
voice and data services) in developed regions will increase to eight
times its 2008 level by 2015, rising from 56MB per month to 455MB per
month.
Historically, voice telephony has dominated wireless network traffic,
and popular data services, such as SMS, consume a tiny amount of
network resource. However, the take-up of USB modems and a broad range
of data services on smartphones will increase wireless network
traffic. Average wireless network traffic per cellular user (for all
voice and data services) in developed regions will increase to eight
times its 2008 level by 2015, rising from 56MB per month to 455MB per
month.
--
While voice traffic will continue to increase, as a result of on-going
fixed-mobile substitution, data traffic will rise at significantly
faster and come to dominate wireless network traffic. By 2015, data
will account for 94% of total wireless network traffic in developed
regions.
While voice traffic will continue to increase, as a result of on-going
fixed-mobile substitution, data traffic will rise at significantly
faster and come to dominate wireless network traffic. By 2015, data
will account for 94% of total wireless network traffic in developed
regions.
--
A number of uncertainties could result in traffic levels differing
from our base-case forecasts. An upside forecast derived by Analysys
Mason indicates that by 2015, traffic per customer in developed
regions will grow to almost 30 times its level in 2008.
A number of uncertainties could result in traffic levels differing
from our base-case forecasts. An upside forecast derived by Analysys
Mason indicates that by 2015, traffic per customer in developed
regions will grow to almost 30 times its level in 2008.
"Strong take-up of USB modem services could result in traffic per
cellular customer increasing to as much as 23 times its 2008 level by
2015. Mobile operators may need networks that are able to support a huge
increase in traffic, and should review their strategies towards USB
modem services," says Dr Alastair Brydon, the report's co-author. "In
the short-term, underutilisation of 3G networks allows mobile operators
to offer low-cost USB services, but operators may be forced to rethink
their strategies when they are confronted by the need to make further
network investment."
cellular customer increasing to as much as 23 times its 2008 level by
2015. Mobile operators may need networks that are able to support a huge
increase in traffic, and should review their strategies towards USB
modem services," says Dr Alastair Brydon, the report's co-author. "In
the short-term, underutilisation of 3G networks allows mobile operators
to offer low-cost USB services, but operators may be forced to rethink
their strategies when they are confronted by the need to make further
network investment."
The report is available online at http://store.analysys.com,
priced at GBP2250 (approximately EUR2820) plus VAT.
priced at GBP2250 (approximately EUR2820) plus VAT.