Annual revenues from the global mobile market will top USD 1.03
trillion by 2013, when the number of subscriptions worldwide will have
risen to more than 5.3 billion, according to Informa Telecoms &
Media. From end-2007 to end-2013, the global mobile market will see
huge growth, increasing in size by over half (56%), according to the
latest edition of Informa Telecoms & Media's Global Mobile
Forecasts to 2013.
It took over 20 years to reach 3 billion subscriptions, but another
1.9 billion net additions are forecast in just six years, with the
global total nudging past the 5-billion milestone in 2011. With this
extraordinary growth, total annual revenues derived from mobile
operators will grow by over a third (33.9%), jumping from USD 769
billion in 2007 to USD 1.03 trillion six years later.
Informa Telecoms & Media forecasts more than three quarters
(78%) of global net additions between 2007 and 2013 to come from
markets in Asia Pacific, Africa and Latin America, which will be the
powerhouses of organic growth over the next five years. Astonishingly,
nearly half (47%) of the 1.9 billion global net adds will come from
just five markets - India, China, Indonesia, Brazil and Russia. By
contrast, the mature markets of North America and Western Europe will
in total contribute just 8% of global net adds, reflecting the high
level of saturation in these markets.
Globally, subscription penetration will approach the 75% mark in
2013, while some countries will push past the 150% barrier - Romania
(152%), Russia (153%), Italy (168%), Ukraine (173%) and Greece (183%).
Growth in subscriptions (the number of SIMs) will outstrip growth in
subscribers (the number of unique users), pointing to greater multi-SIM
ownership. The global ratio of subscriptions to subscribers will
increase from 1.29 in 2007 to 1.32 in 2013. In Western Europe, the
ratio will reach 1.55 in 2013, and even higher (1.75) in Eastern Europe.
The high growth potential of developing markets reflects the
entrance of new operators, as well as improvements in regional network
roll-out and rising competition, which is expected to lower the barrier
for new subscribers. "Reductions in voice tariffs, the option of very
low-denomination prepaid top-ups and the greater availability of cheap
2G and 2.5G handsets will open out mobile services to low-income,
low-ARPU subscribers who have never previously owned a mobile phone,"
said Chris Stamatakis, research analyst at Informa Telecoms & Media
and author of Global Mobile Forecasts to 2013.
As the global subscription base expands, total annual revenues will
increase to over USD 1 trillion in 2012. Voice revenues will continue
to make up the lion's share of total revenues, but will see slowing
growth, and even a decline from 2010 onwards. With regulators worldwide
looking to promote competition, forcing operators to push down voice
tariffs, Informa Telecoms & Media expects voice revenues to peak as
soon as 2009 in Western Europe, and even by end-2008 in North America.
In more developing markets such as the Middle East and Asia Pacific,
voice revenues will not peak until 2011, and 2012 in Latin America and
the Caribbean.
Operators globally will be challenged to generate sustainable
revenues as average revenue per user (ARPU) continues to drop. To keep
annual revenues on the up, operators will need to promote usage of data
services. Annual data revenues, unlike voice revenues, will go from
strength to strength, and will more than double from USD 148 billion in
2007 to USD 347 billion in 2013. As a result, the proportion of total
revenues generated by data services will increase from less than a
fifth (19.2%) in 2007 to over a third (33.7%) at the end of the
forecast period.
With voice revenue streams diminishing, industry players will
encourage data spend among subscribers by innovating in non-voice
services and differentiating their data service offerings from those of
their competitors. While 2G will remain the dominant technology
generation by subscription numbers until 2013, its market share will
fall from over two thirds (66.9%) in 2007 to less than one third
(32.7%) in 2013, as 3G+ technologies continue to gain ground. 3.5G
technologies accounted for just 1.2% of total subscriptions in 2007,
but will represent nearly a quarter (22.9%) of the global subscription
base by 2013 and exceed the number of 3G subscriptions.
"As more next-generation networks roll out, 3G and 3.5G traffic will
grow vigorously and the number of global HSDPA subscriptions will
increase exponentially in the short term," said Stamatakis.
"Furthermore, with migration to next-generation technologies already
under way, with operators increasingly favouring HSDPA as they jump on
the LTE bandwagon, Informa Telecoms & Media expects operators to
focus increasingly on fulfilling consumers' growing demand for mobile
broadband - which is becoming the long-sought killer app for mobile
operators."