At the end of 2008, only 11% of worldwide wireless subscriptions
were 3G. By the end of 2013, the percentage of 3G and 4G subscriptions
will reach 30%, reports In-Stat (http://www.in-stat.com). This trend is reflected in fourth quarter 2008 wireless infrastructure contract awards.
Looking forward, WiMAX will have to prove itself over the next
couple of years with the rise of HSPA and LTE. In-Stat expects mobile
WiMAX to be attractive in developing countries and remote locations in
which fixed broadband networks are not yet deployed. It is still
unknown whether or not mobile WiMAX will be competitive in locations
with existing 3G cellular and fixed broadband networks.
Recent research by In-Stat includes:
- 802.16e, the mobile standard for WiMAX, has been mainly deployed
for fixed and nomadic services. Clearwire, Korea Telecom, and UQ of
Japan are among a few notable exceptions that are embracing 802.16e for
mobile data applications. - There were 132 announced deployments in the fourth quarter of
2008, consisting of 95 HSPA, 18 WCDMA, 12 mobile WiMAX, six CDMA EV-DO,
and one TD SCDMA. - Based on the contract award activity over the past few quarters,
In-Stat expects most of the deployments through new live networks to be
WiMAX and HSPA. In-Stat has seen a significant slowdown in contracts
for WCDMA and CDMA EV-DO equipment.
"Based on contract awards, WiMAX deployments are remaining resilient
in the face of the economic slowdown, although some operators are
slowing the deployment rate," says Daryl Schoolar, In-Stat analyst.
"The WiMAX equipment heavyweights of Alcatel-Lucent, Alvarion, Motorola
and Samsung are benefitting from the trend. Other vendors to watch
include Cisco, Huawei and ZTE."
The research, "4Q08 3G/4G Deployment and Subscriptions Database" (#IN0904349GDS), covers
the worldwide market for deployment and subscription data information
for mobile WiMAX, HSPA, EV-DO, LTE and future 4G technologies. It
includes:
- Five-year subscription forecasts for cellular and mobile WiMAX. A
"subscription" refers to the highest level of the technology that a
user's primary personal communication device supports. Users can have
multiple subscriptions per device. - Worldwide infrastructure deployments by technology and region from 2002 to the present.
- Worldwide contract awards by technology and region for 2007 and 2008.
For more information on this research please visit: http://www.instat.com/catalog/wcatalogue.asp?id=311 or contact sales: http://www.instat.com/sales.asp