ABI Research's
current forecasts for 2010 are cautiously optimistic and suggest we may see shipment numbers stabilize and maintain an
essentially flat growth rate rather than falling further.
"ABI Research estimates that worldwide handset shipments will fall by
at least 8% in 2009," says practice director Kevin Burden, "and we
believe that flat growth in 2010 is the best the market will deliver.
We will see neither significant growth nor decline in shipments, and
that would actually be a good outcome: the beginning of the upswing
back to a more stable growth pattern."
Even if global
shipment numbers hold steady at essentially 2009 levels, there will be
regional variations. Some regions such as the Middle East and Africa
will fare comparatively better, but volumes there are quite low.
The Asia-Pacific region will suffer most in 2009, primarily as a result
of its huge volume of shipments - roughly triple the next largest
region. And stabilization - if it comes - will arrive there a little
later than in North America and Europe, resulting in a 2010 forecast
that still shows a minimal decline in shipments, while other regions
may enjoy a minimal positive growth.
"There are telltale
signs that at least some parts of the handset ecosystem may be starting
to steady," Burden adds. "Many handset vendors are replacing component
inventories after reducing them to very low levels in recent months to
keep from overextending as the market dropped. This doesn't necessarily
mean the whole market is doing better, but it is good news at least for
the component suppliers, some of which were really suffering."
ABI Research's newly updated "Mobile Device Market Share Analysis and Forecasts" (http://www.abiresearch.com/research/1003877-Mobile_Devices_Market_Forecasts)
database not only provides critical data on vendor market share, vendor
ASPs and handset shipments, it also reveals the penetration of advanced
features.