According to ChangeWaves latest survey of cell phone owner, the shift to smartphones continues. There is a slight dip in the forecast for the spring season, due to no Apple and Research In Motion immediate product launches scheduled for the next 90 days.
After the huge launch of the iPhone 3G and the impressive successes of the new Blackberry models, 11.2% of respondents say they'll be buying a smartphone over the next 90 days, 1-pt less than in our December 2008 survey.
Despite this small decline, the 11.2% number is the third-highest percentage recorded in a ChangeWave survey dating back to 2005 - and the new product launches and upgrades set for the summer are likely to boost that number as we approach the third quarter.
RIM vs. Apple vs. Palm
Research in Motion's BlackBerry models (41%) continue to maintain RIM as the overall market share leader among consumers, while Apple (24%; up 1-pt) remains firmly in second place.
There an uptick for Palm in the future due to the Palm Pre. For only the second time since October 2006, Palm (4%; up 3-pts) has registered an uptick in planned smart phone purchases among consumers.
Going forward RIM planned purchases remain strong - an accomplishment considering RIM recently completed a wave of new product launches, which normally results in a slowdown in the aftermath.
Yet among respondents planning to buy a new smartphone in the next 90 days, 37% say they'll get a RIM Blackberry - just 2-pts below the surge seen in our prior survey and the highest level of demand in the smartphone industry.
For comparative purposes, compare these RIM findings to the 22-pt
drop Apple experienced between June and September 2008 (from 56% to
34%) in the aftermath of its successful iPhone 3G launch.
Note that consumer planned buying for the Apple iPhone remains
steady (30%; unchanged), leaving Apple a strong second to RIM going
forward.
Moreover, Apple is expected to release upgraded iPhone models with
improved features and new pricing - perhaps as early as this summer.
And in another positive for Apple, the survey results show these new
models and pricing plans have considerable potential to move the needle:
- 9% of consumers say they are likely to buy a 32GB iPhone 3G ($299)
- 11% say they are likely to buy a 16GB iPhone 3G ($199)
- 8% say they are likely to buy the 8GB Traditional iPhone ($99)
The Cupertino, California manufacturer is also expected to release
its next generation iPhone operating system - iPhone OS 3.0 - within
the next few months. And one-in-five consumers (20%) say they're More
Likely to buy an iPhone as a result.
But what of the Steve Jobs 'effect'? With his recent health
disclosure and taking a leave of absence - midst speculation on whether
Apple will stumble without him - we asked consumers what effect it
would have on their likelihood of buying Apple products if Jobs were to
permanently step down as CEO:
If Steve Jobs were to step down as the CEO of Apple, what effect
- if any - would it have on your likelihood of buying Apple products in
the future?
- Four-in-five (80%) now say it would have No Effect on their
likelihood of buying Apple products. And while 9% still say they'd be
Less Likely to buy Apple products if Jobs steps down, that's a 5-pt
improvement from six months ago.
So while Apple still has a long way to go in ameliorating consumer
concern, things do appear to be moving in the right direction.
The March 17-23 ChangeWave survey, surveyed 4,292 cell phone owners.