Juniper reports that up to 12% of the global DSL installed base will be
substituted by WiMAX by 2013. The Far East will lead with over one
fifth of the 47m subscribers in 2013.
A region by region analysis by Juniper Research found that there is
a significant opportunity now for WiMAX as a DSL substitute technology.
The study explored how WiMAX is well suited to rapid deployment in the
many underserved areas, not only in developing areas, but also in
developed countries.
Report author Howard Wilcox said: "WiMAX will be an attractive offer
in areas where there are no wired networks, and in areas where the
existing DSL speed is suboptimal. WiMAX will solve the broadband
access problem for users located at the fringes of DSL coverage. This
is in fact the case in a number of developed nations such as UK, USA,
Ireland and Scandinavia, and WiMAX network operators are deploying
networks to address this market need. Additionally in developing
countries - such as India - network operators are aiming to provide
basic connectivity."
The vast majority of the WiMAX 802.16e trials and network contracts
which are being announced almost daily will begin by providing fixed
broadband. Mobile usage will develop after initial demand for fixed
and portable services - this will be an added benefit for subscribers.
Highlights from the report include:
• The annual fixed WiMAX global market size will exceed 13m subscribers by 2013
• The WiMAX device market - comprising CPE, chipsets, minicards, and USB dongles - will approach $6bn pa by 2013
• The
top 3 regions (Far East, N. America and W. Europe) will represent over
60% of the $20bn p.a. global WiMAX service revenues by 2013
However, Howard Wilcox cautioned: "Brand identification and service
differentiation are major marketing challenges facing new WiMAX
operators. Many of the existing broadband providers are household
names that already have widespread market presence and recognition.
WiMAX operators will need to identify and promote their USPs, whilst
avoiding entering the market on the basis of price."
The report provides five year regional forecasts for WiMAX 802.16e
as a 'local loop' technology, providing data on subscribers, service
revenues and devices as well as detailed deployment tables and case
studies. Juniper Research interviewed senior executives across a wide
range of vendors and operators.