While more smartphones will be bought by confused consumers, the overall handset market will not be as robust as expected. The financial downturn will cause1.04 billion fewer devices sold in
the next five years than had previously been expected, according to
Informa Telecoms & Media's latest report, The Financial Crisis:
Analyzing the impact on global mobile markets.
The global economic downturn has led Informa Telecoms & Media to
revise device-sales forecasts for the next five years down 14%, but
growth is expected to pick up in 2010, albeit at a lower rate than
previously expected.
According to Informa, device-sales figures will once again hit 2008
levels in 2011, when year-on-year growth of 8% is expected. Sales of
high-end devices are expected to grow faster than those of low-end
devices after 2009, indicating a shift among users worldwide away from
cheap devices to more feature-rich and expensive ones.
Users will buy 6.39 billion devices between now and 2013, according
to revised figures from Informa Telecoms & Media that take into
account the global economic downturn.
A forecast made last year, before the extent and severity of the
economic downturn became apparent, stated that 7.43 billion devices
would be sold to end-users in 2009-2013, meaning that the economic
downturn has caused a 13.9% downward revision in Informa's forecasts.
The revised figures forecast that users will buy 1.12 billion
devices in 2009, compared with the previous forecast of 1.32 billion.
Informa includes both handsets and dongles in its definition of devices.
"Although growth is forecast to slow in 2009, it is set to pick up
again in 2010, when users are expected to buy 1.17 billion devices, up
4.27% year-on-year," says Paul Lambert, senior research analyst at
Informa Telecoms & Media
End-users will keep their devices for six to nine months longer than
in the past as a result of the economic slowdown and that operators
will move away from aggressive handset subsidies.
Users are expected to be less inclined to spend disposable income on
new devices, a factor that will prolong the handset replacement cycle.
Each of these factors will have a negative impact on device sales in
2009.
Mobile subs record first in 2008 - fourth quarter is lowest for net adds
The mobile industry recorded a first in 2008: For the first time,
the quarter with the fewest net subscriptions added was the fourth.
Because the fourth is traditionally the quarter with the largest number
of net additions, this could be a sign that the financial downturn is
now affecting subscription growth.
The number of net mobile subscriptions added worldwide in 4Q08 fell
to just under 164 million, representing a 4.5% quarter-on-quarter
decline and a fall of about 17% year-on-year. By the end of 2008, there
were 3.97 billion active mobile subscriptions globally, accounting for
a 59% penetration rate.
The region that suffered the most in 4Q08 was Asia Pacific, where
there were 68.4 million net additions, down from 87 million in 3Q08 and
87.6 million in 4Q07. The 4Q08 figure represented the region's lowest
individual quarterly growth for seven quarters.
There are also clear signs of a slowdown in growth, when comparing
net additions for 4Q07 and 4Q08 in Europe, North America and Latin
America. However, there is still resilient growth in the Middle East
and Africa. In Africa, penetration is still under 38%, and across
sub-Saharan Africa the figure is much lower.