Coda Research Consultancy research shows that portable laptop and netbook users accessing the internet via
mobile broadband will produce US$48bn in operator revenues in 2017,
will number 418m worldwide, and will generate and consume an immense 1.8 exabytes
of traffic per month - a forty fold increase over 2009.
Coda Research Consultancy's report into mobile broadband via netbooks
and laptops shows that the most significant growth will occur in the Asia-Pacific
region, where users will amount to 162m by 2017. Europe will account
for 94m users, and North America for 58m users.
Impacts of Long Term Evolution (LTE) will be dramatic, with half of
all mobile broadband via netbook and laptop users employing LTE worldwide
in 2017. LTE users will hit 38m in 2013 after a ramp up in LTE production
in 2012, and will rise to 209m by 2017, a 1100% increase over 2012. Three
quarters of users in Europe and nearly two thirds of users in North America
will employ LTE in 2017. This contrasts with just over half of users in Asia
Pacific, and 12% in Central and South America. According to Steve Smith, founder
of Coda Research, "LTE take up will be greatly skewed toward European and
North American markets in the short to medium term, where ARPU will be highest.
However, we will also see significant take up in China, and we may also see
countries like India bypass 3G altogether, and move straight to LTE."
More generally, mobile broadband user growth will not correspond with operator
revenue growth, particularly in less wealthy regions of Asia-Pacific, thus
significantly impacting mobile broadband ARPU. For example, operator
revenues from Asia Pacific will grow at only 50% of the rate of users, which
contrasts with 63% for Europe. The silver lining however, is that LTE ARPU
will be 17% higher than for mobile broadband in general.
LTE operator revenues will be greatest in Europe, where they will rise
by a CAGR of 47% from 2012 to 2017, and will form 83% of all mobile broadband
revenues in that region. LTE revenues from North America will grow significantly
more, at a CAGR of 59% between 2012 and 2017, and LTE will form 72% of its
mobile broadband revenues. In contrast, LTE revenues will form only 13% of
all mobile broadband revenues in Middle East and Africa.
LTE usage via portables will lead to more traffic per user than for mobile
broadband in general. This will further increase pressure upon network capacity,
and will hit 1.1 exabytes per month in 2017. Asia Pacific alone will take
up 45% of this, whilst Europe will take up a third, and North America 17%.
Video will dominate mobile broadband traffic to and from portables,
and will account for over half (53%) of traffic by 2017. The bad news for
rights' holders is that one fifth of all traffic will be P2P. Nearly half
of video traffic (47%) and nearly two thirds of P2P traffic will be consumed
in Asia Pacific. This reflects the dominant position this region will play
in mobile broadband usage and how mobile broadband will continue to be the
sole vehicle for many people to gain broadband connectivity in developing
countries such as India and China.
In summing up the report's forecasts, Steve Smith said, "Clearly, tremendous
opportunities for both operators and device and component vendors exist, but
the risks are significant. With enormous growth in traffic and considerable
decline in ARPU, operators will need to be ruthlessly efficient. Asia Pacific
is going to be the hotbed for growth, but it is a complex picture of emerging
markets, developed markets and even markets that will leapfrog 3G altogether.
LTE is going to be an important cushion for operators, but our research shows
they will need to take into account the very different factors impacting 3G
and 3G+ growth across regions and decide carefully how, when and where
to market LTE."
The report Mobile Broadband and Portable Computers: Revenue, User and
Traffic Forecasts 2009-2017 forms part of Coda Research Consultancy's
2009 'Mobilities' project. This report presents 48 pages of revenue,
user and traffic forecasts and commentary up to and including 2017, split
by five key regions (Europe, Asia Pacific, North America, Latin America, and
Middle East and Africa). The report includes separate forecasts for LTE (Long
Term Evolution).
The report is essential reading for device and component vendors, mobile
network operators, consultants, financial analysts and application, content
and service providers.
Key Questions answered by this report:
- How much service revenue and ARPU will users of mobile broadband via portables
generate by region each year up to 2017? - What proportions of these revenues and ARPU will be derived from LTE?
- What will the take up of mobile broadband across each region each year
be, and how much and what types of traffic will they generate? - What proportions of revenue, users and traffic will be generated by LTE
each year up to 2017? - Which will be the prime regions for 3G and LTE deployments?
- What are the trends, drivers and constraints shaping the development of
mobile broadband, including LTE, markets across all regions?
To find out more about this report and its costs, and to read further highlights,
visit www.codarc.co.uk