The number
of smartphones sold each year will increase from around 165.2 million
in 2009 to 422.96 million in 2013, with the total number of smartphone
users approaching 1.6 billion, according to Wireless Expertise, a wireless market research and consulting firm. Its latest report "The future of mobile application storefronts" shows how smartphone penetration will reach approximately 28-30% of the total mobile market by 2013.
Wireless
Expertise forecasts that the global mobile app market - including games
- will be worth $4.66 billion in 2009, rising to $16.60 billion, in
2013. With mobile phones outnumbering PCs around the world by 4:1,
mobile applications represent an even bigger opportunity for the mobile
industry than the fixed-line perceived the internet a decade ago.
"With
over four billion mobile users around the world compared to
approximately one billion PCs, mobile will become the ideal channel for
businesses to reach their consumers," continued Khanna. "Mobile
operators have to adopt a dual app store strategy, using the now
widely-accepted app store model in conjunction with a browser-based
widget store, to provide the greatest potential for a mass-market
proposition."
The
report points out that complacency from existing handset vendors and
mobile operators had virtually killed the mobile content market. But
mobile applications have reignited the demand for multimedia content
and applications.
Wireless
Expertise credits Apple for growing and revolutionalising the
applications market. "Apple has not only invigorated what was rapidly
becoming a stagnant mobile content and services market, but its App
Store has paved the way for professional content developers and
publishers to stand side-by-side with the new breed of garage
developers introducing innovative and functional apps," said Khanna.
"However, we expect Apple to face tough competition from mobile
operators, independent service providers and competing vendor
application portals in the next 18-24 months."
The
report suggests that Nokia will be very active in the smartphone market
and Nokia's biggest advantage over Apple is its ability to offer Ovi on
a wide range of handsets, ranging from the high-end to the mainstream.
And the fact that Nokia is pushing its app store to a mass market is
very encouraging.
Mobile
Operators releasing a mobile internet API would address the issue of
fragmentation and help create a multichannel app services and content
retail environment coupled with integrated billing and payment
mechanisms. However, operators must be involved in the delivery and
payment of the service with their own platforms giving improved revenue
shares as high as 90% if they want to compete in this market.
"We
expect smartphone growth to have a positive impact on the number of
application downloads in the short- to mid-term," said Anuj Khanna, CEO
of Wireless Expertise and author of the report. "Strong revenues are
expected to come from low-end mass market smartphones and mid-to
high-end feature-phones in the mid- to long-term as operators and
handset manufacturers take app stores to the mass market."
"Diverse
and competing mobile operating systems from other vendors such as
Symbian, Google Android, Microsoft Windows and Research in Motion will
also help in growing the market," concluded Khanna. "We predict the
emergence of independent mobile application stores which specialise in
niche content such as games and location-based services."
"The Future of
OK, sanity check. 1.6 Billion smartphone users? What's the world's population in two 3 years, 7 billion? 1 in every 5 people on the planet will have a smartphone? Hmmm. He also says 4 billion mobile users...that's over half...one in every two people alive? Please confirm....