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Personal computer (PC) vendors are eyeing up the
booming smartphone market to offset a slump in computer sales,
according to Gartner, Inc. Worldwide smartphone sales will grow by 29
per cent year-over-year to reach 180 million units in 2009, overtaking
notebooks in total unit terms.
Currently smartphones account for 14 per cent of overall mobile device
sales, but Gartner expects by 2012 they will make up around 37 per cent
of global handset sales. Smartphone revenue is forecast to reach US$191
billion by 2012, higher than end user spending on mobile PCs, which is
forecast to reach US$152 billion in 2012. From 2009, user spending on
smartphones will start to surpass the forecast for consumer notebooks.
According to Gartner, PC vendors' cumulative share (Apple excluded) of
the smartphone market has been static at less than 1 per cent for
years. By the end of 2009, Gartner expects that all major PC vendors
will have announced their aim to have a presence in the smartphone
market. However, Gartner does not expect the share of any single PC
vendor to rise above 2 per cent in the smartphone market during the
next three years.
Roberta Cozza, principal research analyst at Gartner, said that as
mobile PCs and smartphone capabilities converge, smartphones will
increasingly represent a market opportunity that most PC vendors feel
they cannot afford to ignore, but they will face tough challenges.
"PC vendors should realise that while convergence of technologies
offers an opportunity to enter into the smartphone arena, the business
models, go to market and positioning of products is very different from
the PC market," said Ms Cozza. "PC vendors will find it difficult to
simply use existing supply chains and channels to expand their presence
in the smartphone market. The smartphone and notebook markets are governed by different rules when it comes to successfully marketing and selling products."
PC vendors have traditionally introduced smartphones based on the Windows Mobile platform, which have mainly attracted business users. PC
vendors will face extreme challenges in having to adapt and base their
smartphone offerings on a consumer-focused value proposition, largely
based on short life cycles, fashion design, hardware and software
platform diversity. Different consumer usage scenarios will demand PC vendors build a thorough understanding of consumer behaviour.
Gartner has identified five main challenges PC vendors will face when entering the smartphone market:
1. Smartphones are not "cut-down" versions of mobile PCs. Technical specifications are less important.
2. The distribution channel for mobile phones is controlled largely by mobile operators.
3. Brand and user experience are significant differentiators for mobile handsets.
4. Handset
vendors are set to dominate the market for mobile internet devices
(MIDs) due to their better understanding of internet usage behaviour.
5. Consumerisation opens the door to consumer smartphones in the organisation - it's not the IT manager who makes the decision.
"The smartphone market has never been more
competitive and even established handset vendors are being challenged
to maintain or expand their positions. PC vendors will be challenged to
stand out from the crowd and be successful unless they produce truly
differentiated and unique products," said Ms Cozza. "Understanding of
mobile consumer behaviours, competitiveness and positioning of their
mobile products and relationships with carriers are all barriers that
cannot be overcome in the short term. This will limit any PC vendor
presence in the smartphone market to low single digits for some time."
Additional information is available in the Gartner report "Dataquest
Insight: PC Vendors' Move Into the Smartphone Market is Not Challenge
Free". The report is on Gartner's website at: http://www.gartner.com/DisplayDocument?ref=g_search&id=1192914