Recent ChangeWave data shows a major upturn in Android an' Droid interest and use. It also reveals the great surge in smartphone growth and a downturn for future Apple iPhone marketshare with iPhone still maintain high customer satisfaction.
ChangeWave's December 9-14 survey of 4,068 consumers shows the
Android operating system roiling the smartphone market, with
Motorola's new Droid smart phone the biggest and most immediate
beneficiary.
Among respondents who currently own a smartphone, 4% say they're
currently using Google's Android operating system - a 3-pt jump since
our survey in September.
But more importantly, 21% of those planning to buy a smart hone in
the next 90 days say they'd prefer to have the Android OS on their new
phone - a monstrous 15-pt jump in just three months.
To put this in context, three months ago Android OS was tied for
last place in consumer preference among the major mobile operating
systems. But since then it has surged into second place ahead of all
competitors except the iPhone OS X (28%) - which remains the number one
choice for operating systems, although down 4-pts from previously.
In contrast to the Google Android surge, the RIM OS (18%; up 1-pt)
is holding steady and the Palm OS/ Web OS (3%) and Windows Mobile (6%)
are each down 3-pts since the September survey.
These findings have major implications for smartphone manufacturers -
but it's important to note that they are occurring at a time of robust
overall growth for the industry.
An Ever Expanding Market
Forty-two percent of respondents now report they own a smartphone - up 3-pts since September.
Going forward, 12.8% of respondents say they plan on buying a smart
phone in the next 90 days - the second highest percentage ever recorded
in a ChangeWave survey.
Smart Phone Manufacturer Market Share
Current Market Share. Research In Motion (RIMM; 39%)
continues to be the smart phone market share leader, down 1-pt since
our previous survey in September. At the same time, number two Apple
(AAPL; 31%) has edged up 1-pt since September. Apple has
experienced continuous market share growth every quarter since the
iPhone launch two-and-a-half years ago.
Palm (PALM; 6%), after holding steady in the previous survey, has slid 1-pt since September.
Future Market Share. Going forward, the Motorola (MOT) Droid
stands out as the biggest and most immediate beneficiary of the
enormous wave of new demand for the Android OS.
Motorola (13%) is registering a huge 12-pt jump in terms of future
buying - the first increase for Motorola in a ChangeWave consumer smartphone survey in three years.
While not nearly as dramatic, HTC also shows an uptick in planned
buying (from 5% to 9%) that corresponds with the November release of
their new Droid Eris model.
The strong momentum for Android can best be seen in the following
chart, which summarizes the huge transformation in consumer planned
buying trends since September.
Apple. While Apple's share of planned smartphone purchases
(32%) is down 4-pts since September, it remains the market leader going
forward. Moreover, in the 6 months since the iPhone 3GS was launched to
enormous fanfare, Apple's planned buying has fallen just 12-pts from
its high (44% to 32%) - far less than the 26-pt drop we saw in the six
months after the 2008 iPhone 3G launch. In short, the current survey
shows Apple is still excellently positioned to outperform in the
consumer smartphone market going forward.
Research In Motion. Unlike a year ago when a slew of new
Blackberry products were creating a wave of momentum for Research In
Motion, RIM's share of consumer planned purchases going forward (21%)
is actually down 6-pts. But we note that RIM has several new
Blackberries expected in first half 2010 - including updated versions
of their Tour, Pearl, Bold, and Curve models - and that should help
stem the rising Google Android tide and the relentless advancement of
the iPhone among consumers.
Palm. Six months after the June Pre launch, Palm's share of
planned smartphone purchases has slowed (from 8% in September to 4% in
the current survey). Palm is clearly caught in a squeeze between the
surging Android and its two most powerful smartphone competitors, RIM
and Apple. Short term, Palm's biggest countermove is the launch of one
or more new models on Verizon and then AT&T, from which it expects
a much-needed momentum boost.
Cell Phone Customer Satisfaction
When it comes to satisfaction levels, the Apple iPhone continues to
lead all other major cell phone manufacturers, with 74% of owners
reporting they're Very Satisfied with their iPhone. RIM ranks second
with 42% saying they're Very Satisfied, down 1-pt since September.
They took a look at consumer satisfaction levels based upon the
type of OS they report having on their smart phone. Here's ChaneWave found:
Note that the Very Satisfied rating for smartphones using Palm's
new Web OS (i.e., the Pre) was 58%, while for smartphones using the
older Palm OS it was just 29%. (Currently, the vast majority of Palm
owners still use the older Palm OS.)