The
worldwide mobile operating system (OS) market will be dominated by
Symbian and Android, as the two OSs will account for 59.8 percent of
mobile OS sales by 2014, according to Gartner, Inc.
Symbian will remain at the top of Gartner's worldwide OS
ranking due to Nokia's volume and the push into more mass market price
points. However, by the end of the forecast period, the No. 1 spot will
be contested with Android, which will be at a very similar share level.
Communication service providers' (CSPs') marketing and
vendor support for Android-based smartphones will drive the platform to
become the second-largest platform, following Symbian, by year-end 2010 . This is almost two years earlier than Gartner predicted a
year ago.
Gartner predicts that by 2014, open-source platforms will continue to
dominate more than 60 percent of the market for smartphones.
Single-source platforms, such as Apple's iOS and Research In Motion's
OS, will increase in unit terms, but their growth rate will be below
market average and not enough to sustain share increase. Windows Phone
will be relegated to sixth place behind MeeGo in Gartner's worldwide OS
ranking by 2014.
"The worldwide mobile OS market is dominated by four players:
Symbian, Android, Research In Motion and iOS," said Roberta Cozza,
principal research analyst at Gartner. "Launches of updated operating
systems - such as Apple iOS 4, BlackBerry OS 6, Symbian 3 and Symbian 4,
and Windows Phone 7 - will help maintain strong growth in smartphones
in 2H10 and 2011 and spur innovation. However, we believe that market
share in the OS space will consolidate around a few key OS providers
that have the most support from CSPs and developers and strong brand
awareness with consumer and enterprise customers."
Forecast: Mobile Communications Device Open OS Sales to End Users by OS (Thousands of Units)
|
OS |
2009 |
2010 |
2011 |
2014 |
|
Symbian |
80,876.3 |
107,662.4 |
141,278.6 |
264,351.8 |
|
Market Share (%) |
46.9 |
40.1 |
34.2 |
30.2 |
|
Android |
6,798.4 |
47,462.1 |
91,937.7 |
259,306.4 |
|
Market Share (%) |
3.9 |
17.7 |
22.2 |
29.6 |
|
Research In Motion |
34,346.8 |
46,922.9 |
62,198.2 |
102,579.5 |
|
Market Share (%) |
19.9 |
17.5 |
15.0 |
11.7 |
|
iOS |
24,889.8 |
41,461.8 |
70,740.0 |
130,393.0 |
|
Market Share (%) |
14.4 |
15.4 |
17.1 |
14.9 |
|
Windows Phone |
15,031.1 |
12,686.5 |
21,308.8 |
34,490.2 |
|
Market Share (%) |
8.7 |
4.7 |
5.2 |
3.9 |
|
Other Operating Systems |
10,431.9 |
12,588.1 |
26,017.3 |
84,452.9 |
|
Market Share (%) |
6.1 |
4.7 |
6.3 |
9.6 |
|
Total Market |
172,374.3 |
268,783.7 |
413,480.5 |
875,573.8 |
Source: Gartner (August 2010)
Gartner expects manufacturers such as Samsung to launch
many new budget Android devices in 2H10 that will drive Android into
mass market segments. Other players, such as Sony Ericsson, LG and
Motorola, will follow a similar strategy. This trend should help Android
become the top OS in North America by the end of 2010.
"CSPs and mobile device manufacturers alike will need to
revisit their platform strategies and balance the need to pursue
platforms with the highest current demand against the need to maintain
differentiation with unique devices," Ms. Cozza said. "CSPs will likely
reduce the number of platforms they offer, to reduce their support costs
and clarify their propositions to market."
Additional information is available in the report
"Forecast: Mobile Communications Devices by Open Operating System,
2007-2014," which is available on Gartner's website at http://www.gartner.com/resId=1428830.