2008 is delivering mixed results for mobile
infrastructure vendors such as Nokia Siemens Networks, Ericsson, and
Alcatel-Lucent. "Spending on radio access network infrastructure
equipment is expected to grow just 3.4% in 2008 to $53.9 billion by the
end of the year," says ABI Research Asia-Pacific vice president Jake
Saunders. "But while a number of mobile operators such as Vodafone and
Orange have reported reductions in end-user mobile services spending,
the need to upgrade key elements of the network is starting to build
and is expected to become even more pressing in 2009."
ABI Research forecasts the number of base stations
to grow from 3.6 million in 2007 to 5.2 million in 2013. In developed
markets, mobile operators are looking to cut their underlying operating
costs and secure competitive edge through the deployment of 3.5G
technologies such as HSDPA and CDMA2000 Rev A. Furthermore the
introduction of Mobile Internet Devices such as RIM's Bold, Nokia's
E71, Samsung's Omnia, and Apple's iPhone is boosting web-based traffic
and email access. Mid-tier devices are also contributing to congestion
as they stimulate the adoption of messaging bundles, games and music
downloads. "Music, games and messaging are boosting the amount of
network traffic," notes senior analyst Nadine Manjaro. "Hence the need
for network upgrades."
Carriers are looking further afield too. While
such 3.5G technologies are helping carriers to roll out new
applications and services, they are well aware that 4G technologies
such as LTE and WiMAX will be needed to deliver any fundamental shift
in the underlying cost of delivering Mbps.
In its latest survey of the radio access network
marketplace, ABI Research pinpoints clear shifts towards LTE among the
CDMA carrier community, complementing commitments from the W-CDMA
carrier community. However spending on GSM-related infrastructure still
remains strong. Carriers are investing in 3G and positioning for 4G but
"good ol' GSM" is not going away any time soon.
ABI Research's "Wireless Infrastructure Forecasts"
database covers a range of wireless base station numbers: vendor market
share, infrastructure revenue broken down by region and technology, and
new base station deployments, also presented by region and technology.
It forms part of the firm's Mobile Networks Research Service.