Worldwide mobile device sales to end users will be 1.214 billion units, a
0.67 per cent decline from 2008, according to the latest outlook by
Gartner, Inc. In September, Gartner had forecast sales to decline 3.7
per cent in 2009. Gartner now predicts sales in 2010 will show a 9 per
cent increase from 2009.
In 2009, overall market economic conditions impacted disposable income
and extended replacement cycles in mature markets from 12 to 18 months.
Gartner expects replacement cycles globally to return to normal within
two years, with the introduction of more aggressively priced
smartphones and shorter contracts. Gartner also expects second-hand
sales in emerging markets and SIM-only sales globally to stabilise in
2010 and to start decreasing from 2011 as consumers feel less
macro-economic pressure.
Smartphone volumes will represent 14 per cent of total mobile devices
sales in 2009, growing by 23.6 per cent from 2008 and to 38 per cent by
2013. However, this positive outlook could be negatively impacted by
mobile operators' decision to associate all smartphones with high
flat-rate data plans, which could increase the total cost of ownership
beyond mass-market consumer acceptance. Despite this, Gartner expects
global ASPs for enhanced phones and smartphones to decline by 3 per
cent in 2010.
The strong performance of markets such as Western Europe and Asia
Pacific was balanced by weaker than expected sales in Latin America and
the Middle East and Africa (see Table 1).
Table 1
Forecast: Mobile Terminal Sales to End Users, Worldwide, 2007-2011 (Thousands of Units)
|
Region |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
|
Asia/Pacific |
453,100.1 |
479,862.6 |
546,770.8 |
|
Eastern Europe |
96,068.0 |
81,145.1 |
84,995.0 |
|
Japan |
40,588.1 |
34,871.7 |
34,897.9 |
|
Latin America |
142,323.1 |
119,737.5 |
126,772.7 |
|
Middle East and Africa |
133,471.9 |
128,879.6 |
140,305.1 |
|
North America |
182,245.8 |
182,571.6 |
190,130.8 |
|
Western Europe |
174,455.3 |
186,950.5 |
198,498.9 |
|
Worldwide |
1,222,252.30 |
1,214,018.60 |
1,322,371.20 |
Source: Gartner (December 2009)
"Although the grey market or 'white label' is not a new phenomenon and
has been generated by Chinese device manufacturers who do not have a
licence to sell and manufacture devices without a valid international
mobile equipment identity (IMEI), today grey-market sales are no longer
limited to China," said Carolina Milanesi, research director at
Gartner. "All manufacturers will have to compete with grey-market
players as they expand into emerging markets in Asia/Pacific, Eastern
Europe, the Middle East and Latin America and bring a lower weighted
average selling price (ASP). The grey market will affect Nokia's market
share the most."
"Despite a projected return to growth in 2010, the times of 20 per cent
growth are certainly over as mature markets are saturated and most
growth will come from emerging markets," concluded Ms Milanesi.
"Pressure will remain for manufacturers to sustain and grow margins as
ASP continues to decline. Software, services and content will be much
bigger drivers than hardware, pushing traditional mobile phone vendors
to reinvent themselves to remain at the top of their game."
Additional information is available in the Gartner report "Forecast Analysis: Mobile Devices, Worldwide, 2003-2013, 4Q09 Update".