Morgan Stanley has release "The Mobile Internet Report."
"We believe more users may connect to the Internet via mobile
devices than desktop PCs within five years," said Mary Meeker, leader
of Morgan Stanley's global tech research team.
Here are the key findings:
- Material wealth creation / destruction should surpass earlier computing cycles.
The mobile Internet cycle, the fifth cycle in 50 years, is just
starting. Winners in each cycle often create more market capitalization
than in the last. New winners emerge, some incumbents survive - or
thrive - while many past winners falter. - The mobile Internet is ramping faster than desktop Internet did, and they believe more users may connect to the Internet via mobile devices than desktop PCs within five years.
- Five IP-based products / services are growing / converging
and providing the underpinnings for dramatic growth in mobile Internet
usage - 3G adoption + social networking + video + VoIP + impressive
mobile devices. - Apple + Facebook platforms serving to raise the bar for how users connect / communicate - their respective ramps in user and developer engagement may be unprecedented.
- Decade-plus Internet usage / monetization ramps for mobile Internet in Japan plus desktop Internet in developed markets provide roadmaps for global ramp and monetization.
- Massive mobile data growth is driving transitions for carriers and equipment providers.
- Emerging markets have material potential for mobile Internet user growth.
Low penetration of fixed-line telephone and already vibrant mobile
value-added services mean that for many EM users and SMEs, the Internet
will be mobile. - In technology, platform companies that lead technology cycles and garner the most
users typically obtain the most power (and related wealth creation) - note IBM in
mainframe era, DEC in minicomputer era and Microsoft in PC era. The Internet era
has proved to be somewhat different as no single player has dominated 'the platform' by playing a crucial role in designing software + hardware. That said, Google's
success in its role as search engine (in effect, uber-aggregator) for the loose and
open Internet speaks for itself.