Even though the iPhone 4 is coming to Verizon, Canalys predicts that Android will continue to
grow at more than twice the rate of its major smartphone competitors in
2011. According to Canalys Q3
2010 estimates, the Google-backed platform already claims a 25% share of
the worldwide smartphone market, with over 20 million shipments of
Android-based worldwide.
"The growth of Android has been phenomenal, but so has
the number of related devices launched with different hardware and
software specifications," said Canalys Principal Analyst Chris Jones. "This has led to the market perception of it as a fragmented platform,
though we believe that growth will continue as the pace of Android OS
upgrades slows."
The Android platform has benefited by established vendors, such as
Samsung and HTC, and it has also enabled PC vendors, such as Acer, to enter
the market with a broad product range spanning smartphones and tablets.
Vendors working on Android have leveraged the open-source
platform to push prices down and bring smartphones to the mass market.
As a result, Android shipments, through the first three quarters of 2010, grew more than 1,000% over the same period in 2009.
Since the launch of the original Android platform in
September 2008, many versions have followed. Gingerbread (Android 2.3)
is already Google's eighth update, with its forthcoming Honeycomb
(Android 3.0) pad-focused release set to appear on devices in coming
months. The platform's rapid evolution has required increased resources
from both device vendors and application developers to support the
operating system.
"The need to differentiate has pushed vendors to create
customized user interface overlays for their Android devices," said
Jones. "As additional investment is required to ensure compatibility
with each operating system upgrade, this has hampered vendors' efforts
to stay up-to-date with the latest Android iteration on current
devices."
"Fragmentation affects all OS platforms, though it is
particularly visible with Android due to the fast pace of upgrades that
has characterized its growth," said Jones. "The problem has been less
pronounced on competitive platforms, such as Apple's iOS, as devices
have been able to support the iOS 4 upgrades since the iPhone 3G. Nokia
has also sought to minimize its fragmentation issues by utilizing the
cross-platform Qt framework."
"Vendors are trying to differentiate further on the
hardware front, with faster and more powerful processors, as well as
larger screen sizes," said Canalys Senior Analyst Daryl Chiam. "Last
week, LG announced the first smartphone to support a dual-core
processor, while Acer and Samsung showcased smartphones with screen
sizes of 4.8" and 4.5" respectively."
"With Android's momentum expected to stay strong, the
installed base of Android-based smartphones and pads will rapidly
increase - good news for developers," said Chiam. "To be successful,
developers must be prepared to cater to the abilities of the different
device categories, tweaking the user experience of their applications
accordingly. This additional effort is well worth the potential benefit
of broader application distribution."
"To support developers, Google must also make substantial
enhancements to the Android Market, including the ability to detect
device platforms, highlighting the applications suitable for each,
which would improve the user experience and increase the number of
downloads," said Chiam.